Investors are waiting for signals from the US-China negotiations and the Fed
Japanese Nikkei -0.44%
Australian ASX + 0.21%
Shanghai SSEC -0.5%
Hong Kong HangSeng + 0.13%
Korean KOSPI + 1.05%
The US market on Tuesday showed a slight negative trend against the background of weak statistics on the housing market and consumer confidence, as well as due to signals of a complication of trade negotiations with China that are starting today due to the initiation of a criminal case against Huawei. Later, Finance Minister Mnuchin said he expected progress at this stage of the negotiations. Beijing has already begun drafting a law designed to ban the forced transfer of technology to joint venture participants. And Apple's strong reporting after closing positively influenced investor sentiment today. Futures S & P500 is growing at 0.2%.
The yields of US government bonds do not show high volatility in anticipation of the outcome of the Fed meeting. The market is adjusted to the soft rhetoric of the regulator, no rate increase is expected. However, the focus will be on the Fed's balance sheet and its rate of decline. It is reported that the excess reserves of banks began to decline sharply as the Fed's balance sheet declines. This may force the regulator to change the balance unloading rate.
The dollar continues to decline today to major world currencies. Nevertheless, it is worth considering today's large block of macrostatistics, including GDP growth in the 4th quarter. and labor market data. In addition, the dollar has not reacted too actively to the news that the White House wants to offer large-scale spending cuts in the draft budget for 2020. The expectation of long-term inflation rates in the EU is also in favor of the dollar growth. They returned to the end of 2016 indicators.
Trading in Asia today take place mainly in positive territory. MSCI Asia in the morning does not show significant dynamics. Japanese Nikkei as an outsider. Investors negatively perceived the news of the long weekend at the end of April. In addition, the yen has suspended easing for the past few days.
Chinese sites today do not show a single dynamic. Shanghai is in a small minus, although the PRC government is taking measures to support domestic consumption. Of course, now the whole focus is on the trade negotiations taking place in Washington. Judging by the news on the preparation of a bill prohibiting the forced transfer of technology to Chinese companies, as well as regulating government intervention in foreign investment, China is determined to achieve a trade deal.
In Hong Kong today is a small increase. In the black real estate developers, some oil and gas assets. As an outsider, technology, insurance companies and banks.
Raw materials and metals
The commodity market today is mainly in positive territory. Gold is growing at 0.36% due to the falling dollar amid expectations of the Fed's soft rhetoric.
Industrial metals mostly in the black. Nickel and copper grow by 1.2% and 0.2%, respectively. Perhaps some impact had an accident at a major producer of metals and iron ore of the Brazilian Vale. Aluminum is reduced by 0.4%. Pressure is reduced by premiums for the supply of metal in the United States against the background of the lifting of sanctions from one of the largest aluminum producers Rusal.
Iron ore jumped more than 6% after reports that Vale, after breaking a dam in Brazil, could cut production by 10%. Steel in Shanghai is growing at 2% today, according to rebar futures.
Oil is up by 0.3%. For a barrel of Brent yield $ 61.4. The situation in Venezuela and the PDVSA sanctions are having a big impact now. It is expected that the protests will continue. Data on US oil reserves from API showed an increase of more than 2 million barrels per week.