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01.02.2019

Negative Chinese statistics against optimism about the outcome of the US-PRC trade negotiations

Japanese Nikkei + 0.06%
Australian ASX -0.03%
Shanghai SSEC + 0.65%
Hong Kong HangSeng -0.29%
Korean KOSPI + 0.1%

American grounds

The US market on Thursday grew amid strong reporting on a number of companies. Also, investors continued to play the soft rhetoric of the Fed following the meeting. Later from Chinese sources, it became known that China and the United States had made serious progress at the talks in Washington, and Trump announced plans to meet with Xi Jinping.

Yields on US government bonds declined amid demand for risky assets and expectations of a halt to the tightening cycle of monetary policy. The dollar, on the contrary, grew in relation to the main world currencies, just against the background of expectations of progress in trade negotiations, which should lead to a strengthening of the US balance of payments. The dollar also benefited from relatively weak statistics for the EU and other countries.

Asian markets

Trading in Asia today takes place mainly in positive territory, with the exception of the Hong Kong platform. MSCI Asia was down 0.2% in the morning. Now the speaker is a little straightened. Investors weigh the news regarding the US-China trade talks. It is expected that in mid-February a large American delegation will visit Beijing to continue trade negotiations. The dates of the presumptive meeting of the heads of state have not yet been indicated.It should be noted that following the meeting, the Chinese side agreed to significantly increase purchases of American agricultural, energy and industrial products. Earlier it was noted that China is working on a bill restricting the transfer of foreign technology and government regulation of investments.

The main negative factor limiting the positive from the statements of Chinese and American officials after the talks were data on activity in the manufacturing sector of China from the agency Caixin. The PMI fell in January to 48.3 p. Against 49.7 p. In December. The expected value of 49.5 p. This is the strongest fall in 3 years. The reduction in activity is already the second month in a row. In contrast to official data, the fall in economic activity in the industrial sector intensified in January.

In Hong Kong, today there is a slight negative trend against the background of Chinese statistics. Although the opening of the market was higher due to positive statements on the results of trade negotiations. As an outsider, some insurers, developers, technology companies, food suppliers. In the black oil and gas assets, pharmaceuticals, energy. It is also worth noting that the market in anticipation of a long weekend in China and Hong Kong may not reflect the essence of news and events. Over the next week, the continental Chinese sites will be closed to celebrate the Lunar New Year.

Raw materials and metals

Commodity market today in negative territory. Gold in the red by 0.2% amid rising dollar. In addition, optimism about the US-China trade negotiations removes some of the risks from the agenda.

Industrial metals in the red due to the dollar and weak Chinese statistics. Aluminum loses 0.14%. Nickel and copper are reduced by 0.5% each.

Steel in Shanghai is growing at 0.8%, according to reinforcement futures. Iron ore is up by 4.7%. Coking coal increases by 3.8%.

Oil today adds about 0.2%. For a barrel of Brent, they offer $ 60.9. Commodity quotes were caught between negative statistics on China and optimistic trade negotiations. At the same time, the events in Venezuela hint more and more at the change of power in the country, which may eventually lead to an increase in oil production.