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07.02.2019

US market. Alarming news from the eurozone

Quotes at 17:10 MSK
March S & P 500 futures contract: 2715 (-0.54%)
March Nasdaq 100 futures contract: 6954 (-0.61%)

S & P 500 schedule online

External background: German DAX -1,8%; Japanese Nikkei -0.59%; The Chinese market will not work all week due to the celebration of the New Year according to the lunar calendar.

US stock futures sagging on premarket. On Wednesday, key indices closed with a slight decrease.

S & P 500 fixed above the resistance of 2700 points. Now the local goal has moved to 2790 points. The closest support on the pullback is 2670 points.

Risks

The slowdown of the global economy. The European Commission has worsened the assessment of the growth of the eurozone economy in 2019 from 1.9% to 1.3%, in 2020 from 1.7% to 1.6%. The forecast for the dynamics of Italy's GDP was reduced most sharply - to 0.2% in 2019 against the previously assumed 1.2%. If the forecast materializes, then the dynamics will be minimal in five years. At the same time, the target budget deficit of the country for 2019, agreed with Brussels (-2.04% of GDP), is based on expectations of a 1% increase in Italian GDP.

Reporting Twitter (-7%). Formally, analysts' consensus estimates for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue were exceeded. However, the number of active users per month (MAU) decreased by 5% compared to the third quarter and by 9% compared to the same period a year earlier, to 321 million. Another warning factor is Twitter outlook. In the quarter, the company expects revenue in the range of $ 715-775 million. The midpoint of the range - $ 745 million - is noticeably below the consensus of $ 765 million.

Read more in the special review “Twitter scared investors by reporting. Shares fell by 7% "

Budget policy. According to Donald Trump, Congress is unlikely to come to a consensus on the financing of public institutions before February 15, when the temporary agreement expires. So shutdown can resume. In the Annual Message to Congress, the President of the United States noted the need to build a wall on the border with Mexico, because of the $ 5.7 billion to finance which so many disagreements.

Positive factors

USA and China. Next week, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lightheiser will travel to Beijing to participate in the new round of trade negotiations. The focus is on a number of unresolved issues, including structural problems in China and the problem of protecting the intellectual property of US enterprises.

Prospects for the monetary policy of the Fed. The market lays a greater likelihood that in 2019 the key rate will not be increased. According to the former head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, if the situation worsens, we can not exclude a reduction in rates.