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30.01.2019

US market. Fed can set the tone on the stock exchanges

Quotes at 17:15 MSK
March S & P 500 futures contract: 2654 (+ 0.51%)
March Nasdaq 100 futures contract: 6709 (+ 1.05%)

S & P 500 schedule online

External background: German DAX -0.2%; Japanese Nikkei -0.52%; Chinese Shanghai Composite -0.72%.

US stock futures are growing up on premarket. On Tuesday, key indices closed in a multidirectional format, the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.8%.

An important resistance on the S & P 500 - 2680-2700 points, the index earlier approached in this zone. With a break of 2700 points, the local target will move to 2790 points. On the pullback, the nearest support is 2600 points.

Positive factors

Reporting Apple (+ 5%) and Boeing (+ 6.5%). Apple reported a quarterly revenue reduction of 5% from the same period a year earlier, to $ 84.31 billion. The decline in the holiday quarter occurred for the first time in 10 years, although analysts' consensus was slightly exceeded. The company also said that sales in the current quarter are likely to be lower than average analysts had expected. Despite this, the shares of the “apple giant” are growing on positive data on the dynamics of the high margin segment of services.

Boeing increased its net profit and revenue in the fourth quarter, exceeded the consensus assessment of analysts and gave a strong forecast for 2019. At the end of 2018, the company exceeded $ 100 billion for the first time in its 102-year history. Net income in October-December increased by 3%, to $ 3.42 billion. Adjusted earnings were $ 5.48 per share, with expectations of $ 4.57.

After the close of trading in the US, quarterly releases will be made by Facebook, Microsoft and Tesla. See “Weekly reporting calendar”

The monetary policy of the Fed. The results of the Fed meeting will be published on Wednesday . At this time, changes in monetary policy is not exactly foreseen. Important details will be available from the regulator’s statement and the press conference of Jerome Powell .

Now the fed funds rate futures segment lays a 67% chance that in 2019 the key rate will remain unchanged and the 6% chance of its reduction. The December FOMC forecast assumes 2 stages of the rate increase this year. In March it will be updated. We can not exclude lower expectations of the regulator.

Today in the US market volatility is possible. If the Fed's rhetoric is flexible enough, pointing to the possibility of revising the forecast on the dynamics of interest rates in a softer direction, this can support the US stock market. There will also be a factor playing against the dollar and in favor of the currencies of developing countries.

Read more in the special review “Fed meeting. What awaits investors?

Negative factors

Shutdown may resume. Donald Trump believes that the next shutdown "is definitely possible." In his opinion, Congress is unlikely to reach a compromise before February 15, when the deadline for government financing will expire.

USA and China. The next round of trade negotiations will start on Wednesday. Earlier, the Trump administration has accused Chinese telecommunications equipment manufacturer Huawei Technologies of violating Iran’s sanctions and intellectual property rights. There are concerns that the situation may complicate the negotiations.