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12.02.2019

US market. There are two "great deals"

Quotes at 17:15 MSK
March S & P 500 futures contract: 2728 (+ 0.74%)
March Nasdaq 100 futures contract: 6970 (+ 0.81%)

S & P 500 schedule online

External background: German DAX + 1.1%; Japanese Nikkei + 2.61%; Chinese Shanghai Composite + 0.68%.

US stock futures are growing up on premarket. On Monday, key indices closed in a multidirectional format.

Last week, the S & P 500 approached the 200-day moving average and began to adjust. Support zone on the index - 2670-2640 points. While there is still a high probability of a new upward movement, to the area of ​​2790 points.

Positive factors

New shutdown was avoided. Leaders of the Republicans and Democrats on Monday reached an agreement on budgetary issues to prevent another shatdaun. The previously reached agreement on the interim financing of government agencies expires on Friday. The bill requires the signature of Donald Trump. The agreement assumes that $ 1.4 billion will be allocated to finance the wall on the border with Mexico, instead of $ 5.7 billion required by Trump. The barrier will be erected over 55 miles, instead of 215 miles requested by the White House.

USA and China. On Thursday-Friday, talks will be held in Beijing between Finance Minister Stephen Mnuchin, US Trade Representative Robert Laitheiser and Vice Premier Liu He. Today preparatory meetings will continue. According to the Axios portal, citing informed sources, the meeting between Donald Trump and PRC Chairman Xi Jinping may take place in mid-March, but so far no final decision has been made on this matter.

According to the plan, in the absence of an agreement from March 2, import duties of $ 200 billion of Chinese products will be increased, from 10% to 25%. The timing is expected to be shifted. Trump said he hoped for a "great" deal.

Prospects for the monetary policy of the Fed. The market lays a greater likelihood that in 2019 the key rate will not be increased. The derivatives segment indicates an 11% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. The next meeting of the regulator will be held on March 19-20, and the updated forecast of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be presented. All other things being equal, the median forecast for the dynamics of the key rate can be revised from stage 2 to stage 1 in 2019.

Risks

Reporting season. About 70% of S & P 500 companies have already reported. As of Friday, 53 enterprises submitted a negative outlook for Q1, 12 - a positive one. According to the research organization FactSet, the forecast for the consolidated EPS S & P 500 dynamics for the first quarter fell to minus 1.7% (y / y). For 2019, a 5% increase is expected after 20.2%.

This week's quarterly results will be presented by Activision Blizzard, Coca-Cola, NVIDIA.

The slowdown of the global economy. The eurozone economy suffers from increased protectionism, deteriorating relations with Russia and China’s problems. We are waiting for data on the GDP of the region as a whole and Germany in particular for the IV quarter on Thursday. The German economy is export-oriented, there are risks of a technical recession in 2019.

On Thursday, data on the trade balance of China will be presented, and on Friday - statistics on inflation. The data on China's foreign trade allows to assess the situation both domestically (imports) and worldwide (exports), and they also include statistics on the turnover of commodity assets.